Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team Liquid vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x434c649f5d4094f195b1d7bdfd8d35e092bdadfc10509cb44e73b9a5e33f1c20

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Disguised
Resolved: May 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $402,159
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $397,548

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $402,159 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Lol
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3fc4…d48cbacked Disguised	0c	37,239$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	275	40.4%111 W · 164 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd91…3cc3backed Disguised	0c	36,003$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	114	36.8%42 W · 72 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c36…08f5backed Disguised	0c	35,955$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	156	35.9%56 W · 100 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf368…cfb1backed Disguised	0c	33,224$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ef…c83ebacked Disguised	0c	27,899$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14d3…3109backed Disguised	0c	20,643$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63bd…3480backed Disguised	0c	19,251$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d65…383bbacked Disguised	0c	18,168$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	83	39.8%33 W · 50 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7253…5fa2backed Disguised	12c	14,010$1,677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,676.65	109	45%49 W · 60 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Disguised	11c	13,886$1,528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,527.5	1,630	40.1%654 W · 976 L	+48.3wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Disguised	22c	13,823$3,051 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,050.54	3,131	33.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L	-150.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb725…93dbbacked Disguised	0c	10,077$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-3.3wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22a7…7e1dbacked Disguised	0c	9,166$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.18per pick	38cpaid	-53%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Disguised	13c	6,500$840 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$839.99	1,468	28.9%424 W · 1,044 L	+23.5wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da4…18c5backed Disguised	0c	6,426$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked Disguised	14c	6,000$840 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$840	1,132	52.5%594 W · 538 L	+7.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Disguised	22c	5,077$1,115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,114.96	2,202	33.3%733 W · 1,469 L	-72.4wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Disguised	13c	5,000$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	303	21.8%66 W · 237 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Team Liquid	78c	3,663$2,857 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$805.79	434	42.4%184 W · 250 L	+18.6wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Disguised	5c	3,380$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.77	376	41.8%157 W · 219 L	-18.8wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid	79c	3,062$2,420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$641.65	2,406	42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L	+21.5wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Disguised	1c	2,351$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.11	114	0%0 W · 114 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bd9…ea45backed Disguised	12c	2,019$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3cc…dd18backed Disguised	1c	1,466$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	52	32.7%17 W · 35 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Disguised	14c	1,400$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	2,362	32%755 W · 1,607 L	+42.0wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Disguised	12c	1,315$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.81	1,940	48.1%934 W · 1,006 L	+22.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b5…8e32backed Disguised	6c	1,293$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.6	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.11per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Disguised	9c	1,110$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.9	1,092	52.4%572 W · 520 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Liquid	77c	1,042$802 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$239.66	761	42%320 W · 441 L	-23.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf301…4ce1backed Disguised	7c	899.99$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	216	22.7%49 W · 167 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e2b…19a4backed Disguised	5c	819.8$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.99	73	19.2%14 W · 59 L	-6.8wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Disguised	9c	794.33$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.91	498	41.6%207 W · 291 L	-15.6wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid	76c	719$549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.41	1,598	42.4%677 W · 921 L	-17.9wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Team Liquid	78c	689.64$538 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.69	1,539	43.7%673 W · 866 L	-28.0wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Disguised	8c	592.74$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.42	780	43.1%336 W · 444 L	-22.3wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5005…620cbacked Disguised	7c	582.47$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	65	47.7%31 W · 34 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Disguised	20c	540$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	668	45.5%304 W · 364 L	-9.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Disguised	13c	538.46$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	1,114	35%390 W · 724 L	+14.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Disguised	11c	499.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	1,368	37.7%516 W · 852 L	-6.8wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Disguised	5c	483$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.12	1,057	46.1%487 W · 570 L	-11.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Disguised	12c	466.62$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.13	464	36.4%169 W · 295 L	-24.1wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Disguised	13c	461.54$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	808	32.9%266 W · 542 L	-43.9wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad8f…6b52backed Disguised	13c	461$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.66	143	36.4%52 W · 91 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Disguised	11c	450$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	390	44.6%174 W · 216 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Liquid	80c	396.04$317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.21	2,341	40.3%943 W · 1,398 L	-61.8wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed Disguised	13c	385.6$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	131	26%34 W · 97 L	-8.7wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Team Liquid	79c	372.63$295 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.06	107	47.7%51 W · 56 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Disguised	14c	363.71$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.4	422	50%211 W · 211 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf268…960fbacked Disguised	8c	353.85$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	474	53.4%253 W · 221 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb04…8b8abacked Disguised	9c	342.86$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	106	16%17 W · 89 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+20%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Liquid	77c	327.97$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.95	1,003	42.5%426 W · 577 L	-24.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Disguised	14c	315.29$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.33	366	47.3%173 W · 193 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Liquid	78c	287$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.14	742	50.5%375 W · 367 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Disguised	10c	285.25$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.64	1,922	42.2%811 W · 1,111 L	-45.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Disguised	20c	282.03$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	828	36.4%301 W · 527 L	-41.3wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Disguised	12c	260$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.89	1,638	46.7%765 W · 873 L	-26.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Disguised	13c	250$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	229	30.6%70 W · 159 L	-12.6wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Disguised	13c	250$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	1,156	45.1%521 W · 635 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15db…1da8backed Disguised	13c	230.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	97	35.1%34 W · 63 L	-7.2wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-21%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Disguised	19c	225$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.81	1,318	47.3%624 W · 694 L	-31.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Disguised	12c	216.5$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.93	1,079	26%281 W · 798 L	-99.0wins	-0.09per pick	35cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Disguised	7c	204.2$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.03	732	37.7%276 W · 456 L	-51.5wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Team Liquid	79c	204$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.84	1,599	46.8%748 W · 851 L	-48.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Disguised	18c	203.51$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.5	1,728	29.5%509 W · 1,219 L	-123.2wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Disguised	20c	186.05$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.45	1,924	35.9%691 W · 1,233 L	-97.7wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Disguised	12c	180$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	1,110	49%544 W · 566 L	+42.0wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Disguised	15c	165$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	166	34.9%58 W · 108 L	-19.4wins	-0.12per pick	47cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Disguised	11c	163.71$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.01	854	42.7%365 W · 489 L	-14.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Disguised	13c	153.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,831	17.1%313 W · 1,518 L	-236.0wins	-0.13per pick	30cpaid	-46%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4aa1…a844backed Disguised	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	202	38.6%78 W · 124 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed Disguised	7c	144.81$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	476	30.7%146 W · 330 L	-13.4wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe9f…8e23backed Disguised	14c	121.64$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.03	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	-5.4wins	-0.16per pick	33cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Liquid	76c	120$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.8	1,671	57.9%968 W · 703 L	+70.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x904c…4172backed Disguised	17c	111.16$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.13	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfff2…3f58backed Disguised	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-45%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Disguised	14c	91.82$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.65	348	34.2%119 W · 229 L	-39.9wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Team Liquid	78c	75.42$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.59	505	49.3%249 W · 256 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7e1…fbc8backed Team Liquid	78c	21.79$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.79	39	64.1%25 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	64cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf885…d719backed Team Liquid	76c	17.71$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.22	106	50%53 W · 53 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee0…d4f0backed Team Liquid	76c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.6	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	42cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

LoL: Team Liquid vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Seasonthis page
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)Team Liquid won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
LoL: Team Liquid vs Disguised - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
LoL: Team Liquid vs Disguised - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1?Under won
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 2?Over won
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

LoL: Team Liquid vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event