Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf76ddd60c10e98776884daa6742a38a2b591d9c1eba066666fad74bef210b8bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Disguised
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Disguised | 33c | 16,666$5,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,433.12 | 1,630 | 40.1%654 W · 976 L | +48.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Team Liquid | 65c | 10,000$6,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,499.98 | 918 | 54%496 W · 422 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Team Liquid | 65c | 9,683$6,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,388.93 | 510 | 44.1%225 W · 285 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Team Liquid | 67c | 7,967$5,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,653.02 | 675 | 52.4%354 W · 321 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Disguised | 35c | 5,000$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…ec2ebacked Team Liquid | 67c | 5,000$3,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 511 | 60.3%308 W · 203 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a84…8606backed Disguised | 35c | 2,333$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8f…6b52backed Disguised | 42c | 2,314$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.97 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Disguised | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.99 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…5fa2backed Disguised | 35c | 1,378$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.96 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Team Liquid | 67c | 1,247$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.71 | 205 | 57.1%117 W · 88 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Disguised | 34c | 985.95$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.26 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Disguised | 42c | 955.54$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.58 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Disguised | 34c | 836.93$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.55 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Disguised | 39c | 827.41$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.48 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Disguised | 35c | 699.22$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.73 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Disguised | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,007 | 47.9%482 W · 525 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed Disguised | 34c | 510$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 1,110 | 49%544 W · 566 L | +42.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…4ce1backed Disguised | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 216 | 22.7%49 W · 167 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed Disguised | 35c | 398.09$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.39 | 199 | 41.7%83 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…bf2fbacked Disguised | 35c | 383.38$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.85 | 360 | 40.6%146 W · 214 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Team Liquid | 67c | 376.61$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.61 | 650 | 63.2%411 W · 239 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked Team Liquid | 62c | 323.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 440 | 46.4%204 W · 236 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…7cedbacked Team Liquid | 66c | 312.12$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.12 | 553 | 47%260 W · 293 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Disguised | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,114 | 35%390 W · 724 L | +14.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbb…3df5backed Disguised | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +11.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Disguised | 34c | 225.76$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 1,521 | 50.6%769 W · 752 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fe…be09backed Disguised | 35c | 222$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…2ed5backed Disguised | 34c | 204.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…0be0backed Team Liquid | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 160 | 38.1%61 W · 99 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Disguised | 41c | 184.34$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 398 | 59.8%238 W · 160 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Disguised | 35c | 166.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 178 | 40.4%72 W · 106 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…97b4backed Team Liquid | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 677 | 63.4%429 W · 248 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e8…5289backed Team Liquid | 66c | 148.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…f891backed Team Liquid | 66c | 132.24$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 512 | 47.3%242 W · 270 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…8fd0backed Team Liquid | 65c | 115.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 537 | 53.6%288 W · 249 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Disguised | 34c | 111.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 1,576 | 48.4%763 W · 813 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Disguised | 33c | 109.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1,241 | 34.7%431 W · 810 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Disguised | 41c | 107.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…2d79backed Team Liquid | 67c | 101.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Disguised | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -19.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Liquid | 61c | 85.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Team Liquid | 65c | 82.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Disguised | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Disguised | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Team Liquid | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 282 | 50%141 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…62c7backed Team Liquid | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed Disguised | 34c | 73.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Disguised | 35c | 71.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Team Liquid | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 618 | 49.8%308 W · 310 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675f…aa0bbacked Disguised | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Disguised | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 797 | 45.8%365 W · 432 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Disguised | 35c | 47.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed Team Liquid | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Disguised | 35c | 43.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 495 | 14.3%71 W · 424 L | -70.5wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…9e55backed Disguised | 34c | 42.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c6…d4b9backed Disguised | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…40dfbacked Disguised | 41c | 36.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…cfaabacked Team Liquid | 67c | 36.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5252…a7cdbacked Disguised | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 644 | 35.4%228 W · 416 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9d…5d14backed Disguised | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…d6fcbacked Team Liquid | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 158 | 71.5%113 W · 45 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…c14abacked Team Liquid | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Liquid | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Team Liquid | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 751 | 50.7%381 W · 370 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Team Liquid | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 168 | 63.7%107 W · 61 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc8…d12ebacked Team Liquid | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 75 | 69.3%52 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Team Liquid | 65c | 26.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1,170 | 66.2%774 W · 396 L | +69.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Team Liquid | 61c | 23.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 229 | 55.5%127 W · 102 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Team Liquid | 66c | 17.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 320 | 36.9%118 W · 202 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa689…2798backed Team Liquid | 66c | 16.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Team Liquid | 66c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Team Liquid vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular SeasonTeam Liquid won
- LoL: Team Liquid vs Disguised - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- LoL: Team Liquid vs Disguised - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.