TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,766 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dd3…ccacbacked No2c1,599$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5334624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed No16c1,331$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.488028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No29c1,081$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.2312329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes57c644.49$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.518,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes75c594.04$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.071,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes68c513.83$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.941,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b6…20febacked Yes70c431.08$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.082035%7 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes69c335.15$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.55,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes62c316.07$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.281,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No26c266.93$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2176755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca98…15b7backed Yes72c234.57$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.071283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No39c232.04$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.032,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No27c228.74$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.213,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23b2…605cbacked No32c219.71$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7011459.6%68 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes74c199.99$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5271031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes74c194.49$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes74c188.65$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8212735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed No37c183.77$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.198738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf428…9365backed Yes71c181.84$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e79…10c0backed Yes77c177.74$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No15c174.33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.443,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked No40c153.98$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2833535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd8…2183backed No32c143.75$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f50…61abbacked Yes70c141.11$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4af1…b520backed Yes74c134.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.31560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7552…a676backed Yes77c129.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick71cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No22c129.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.993,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe009…121ebacked Yes79c126.18$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.182638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No28c122.04$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7898565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4f…b7d3backed No17c120.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No23c120.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.657,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No19c120$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3595852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No35c117.53$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8593837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No25c115.58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.192,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No21c107.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.334,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No40c106.39$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5468645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No23c104$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.025,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes68c100.85$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4816335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes69c99.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes68c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked No24c99.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2415923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No28c95.14$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6199963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x597b…9ea8backed No12c90$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb9c5…8588backed Yes72c89.76$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.362277.3%17 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes62c89$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No35c86.26$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.193,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe867…4e6ebacked No40c83.91$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.475549.1%27 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28c8…f1c5backed Yes68c81.54$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No17c77.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No32c74.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.914,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e98…ae0fbacked Yes69c72.84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No26c72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.883,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742c…bb75backed No28c71.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c68.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.842,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No35c67.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.961,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce1…712bbacked Yes74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.573455.9%19 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea6e…f7a9backed No15c67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.05650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes79c65.34$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7541…a0b0backed No31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205633.9%19 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe4…4841backed Yes69c59.9$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.573138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x937b…fdb9backed No26c57.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-66.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76b3…7d44backed No50c57.3$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9218449.5%91 W · 93 L-16.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x615f…5f37backed No21c56.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.182040%8 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick56cpaid+13.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No58c55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.82,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f6f…e9fabacked No24c53.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.936431.3%20 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe30b…4252backed Yes77c52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126100%6 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0bf…0fb0backed No28c51.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.541330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes49c50.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed Yes69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.514119.1%27 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked No70c49.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520173.1%147 W · 54 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick74cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63ac…3fc9backed No37c49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.348366.3%55 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3302…489dbacked No34c47.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.02224.5%1 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-85.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No32c46.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1712365%80 W · 43 L+0.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x101a…411ebacked Yes67c46.85$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.57742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes67c45.97$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3330652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No28c45.61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.91,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No34c45.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.262,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed No30c43.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9533232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd92f…3546backed Yes69c43.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.481266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10f4…c2eabacked No46c43.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.755149%25 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a9…ad23backed Yes70c42.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.611926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa00…3316backed Yes73c41.05$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.05850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.63,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes63c38.7$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4979255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49a0…a0a6backed No43c38.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.46633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No36c38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.684,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a2…f366backed No33c38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.467321.9%16 W · 57 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefd5…4df8backed Yes80c38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x784b…f19ebacked No38c36.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.044845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcce6…77d1backed No35c36.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.79139.6%36 W · 55 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7861…3084backed Yes78c35.66$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0115270.4%107 W · 45 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fe…91cfbacked Yes70c35.61$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.61850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes55c35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.716354%88 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No57c34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.524,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5616…61c1backed No34c33.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.48119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.29per pick38cpaid-87%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x259b…453ebacked No32c31.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf132…0da0backed No34c30.65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1566…86afbacked Yes80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9a50…6c35backed Yes67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.852948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.