Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01cd26b1c838eda1bfec94eb9303225173364f78a5f3058c6cc8525025cd9fd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 1,064$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 27c | 501.54$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.97 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 329.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 75c | 296.38$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.77 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 243.46$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 76c | 175.72$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 80c | 170$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 138.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 74c | 135.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 76c | 132.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 80c | 123.34$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 119.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 113.53$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 112.26$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 97.82$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 96.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 25c | 96.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 24c | 92.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 87.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 76c | 76.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 26c | 76.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 72c | 65.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 76c | 65.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…e399backed Yes | 24c | 60.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2a…967bbacked Yes | 20c | 58.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 76c | 56.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 76c | 54.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 53.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…3268backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 44.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 28.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 74c | 25.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 76c | 21.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 77c | 18.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 70c | 18.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 18.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…4a1cbacked No | 79c | 16.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 73c | 14.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 76c | 13.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.