Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46e877c67adadd62e738382704a39c8eaa2692b7167ccb56a6a8a167834bd638
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 22c | 573.72$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.26 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 508.01$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 35c | 477.28$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.8 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 413.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 17c | 390.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 70c | 367.09$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 59c | 346.71$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.89 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 303.07$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 19c | 285.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.74 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 28c | 269.84$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 245.77$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 47c | 231.58$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.28 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 33c | 216.51$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 65c | 190.54$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed Yes | 31c | 176.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.04 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 70c | 175.74$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 163.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 56c | 163.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 69c | 143.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 142.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 49c | 135.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 133.45$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 20c | 131.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.86 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 123$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 28c | 118.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.59 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 31c | 117$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.82 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 108.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 56c | 103.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Yes | 30c | 100.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.23 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.83 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 21c | 99.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 99.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.01 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 15c | 97.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 19c | 97.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 76c | 94.77$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 74c | 92.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 79c | 90.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes | 20c | 87.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.57 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 34c | 85.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 57c | 81.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2a…967bbacked Yes | 17c | 77.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.64 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 65c | 77.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 33c | 71.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 44c | 66.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 23c | 65.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 17c | 64.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 31c | 64.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes | 78c | 64.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 36c | 60.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 30c | 59.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 28c | 53.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes | 34c | 48.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes | 28c | 47.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…b0febacked Yes | 23c | 45.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed Yes | 24c | 42.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 67c | 41.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 76c | 40.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 41c | 37.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 41c | 33.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…ae07backed Yes | 68c | 29.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…fd73backed No | 78c | 25.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 80c | 21.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 68c | 18.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 73c | 18.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 17.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 79c | 15.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc44…2adbbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 14.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 74c | 14.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 76c | 13.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.