TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,823
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,715

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,823 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes22c573.72$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.262,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes18c508.01$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.829,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes35c477.28$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.870741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c413.79$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.1517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No17c390.51$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.911,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes70c367.09$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.5889544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes59c346.71$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.8965749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No31c303.07$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x143c…487ebacked Yes19c285.08$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.745831%18 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No28c269.84$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.133,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No53c245.77$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.493,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No47c231.58$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.281,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No33c216.51$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1776755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes65c190.54$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.544,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe368…3b47backed Yes31c176.04$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.044156.1%23 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No70c175.74$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.11,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No49c163.26$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.764,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No56c163.08$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0758422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ef0…62e0backed No69c143.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3519052.1%99 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes17c142.39$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.747,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No49c135.89$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.780957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No64c133.45$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.441,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes20c131.06$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.8625946.3%120 W · 139 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No47c123$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.125,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes28c118.34$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5944536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes31c117$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8226344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No74c108.07$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.125,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No56c103.1$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.544,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf709…7697backed Yes30c100.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.232821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7531124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.8325038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes21c99.61$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3568335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No79c99.4$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.015,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes15c97.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.052,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes19c97.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0568645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes76c94.77$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.944757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No74c92.69$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4545162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No79c90.93$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.41,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes20c87.42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.572035%7 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6897…a4a4backed Yes34c85.67$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6719217.2%33 W · 159 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes57c81.27$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6761249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e2a…967bbacked Yes17c77.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.643327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa817…95d7backed Yes65c77.31$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7316934.9%59 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eaa…3561backed Yes33c71.26$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0410636.8%39 W · 67 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No47c69$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.414,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No44c66.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6455855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes23c65.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.21,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2451…09fabacked Yes17c64.55$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5522125.3%56 W · 165 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes31c64.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4951631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes78c64.08$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0825049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes36c60.15$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.666445.3%29 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3ac0…ace0backed No76c60$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.347463.5%47 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes22c59.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.71,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes30c59.47$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.625812.1%7 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid+103.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes28c53.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4526142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.543441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes25c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6540237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes34c48.58$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.882458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes28c47.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.314856.3%27 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x506b…b0febacked Yes23c45.26$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.931936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+39.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x63a1…0212backed Yes24c42.32$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2325258.7%148 W · 104 L-0.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes67c41.53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…af97backed Yes76c40.79$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7910658.5%62 W · 44 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No41c37.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3488650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No41c33.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.938,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.534,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2840…ae07backed Yes68c29.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.263773%27 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick67cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No70c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.64,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7d…fd73backed No78c25.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.996648.5%32 W · 34 L-7.0wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-18.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No67c22.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1597570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc857…7c22backed No80c21.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.946262.9%39 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No79c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.82,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.453353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.825549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2534067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No68c18.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4462770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes73c18.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.841,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No78c17.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.791,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No79c15.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.682562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc44…2adbbacked No70c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No69c14.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.281,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No74c14.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7326067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No76c13.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.011,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x059d…10e3backed No79c12.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.