UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3659d755f769e253973bd0a9099ccbd896d12b4f7b811d13139bd730287bbc84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alice Ardeleanof Alice Ardelean, Polyana Viana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,534,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,168,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,534,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Alice Ardelean | 64c | 642,660$411,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231,471.8 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Polyana Viana | 36c | 200,000$72,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72,000 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Polyana Viana | 36c | 187,756$67,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67,592.12 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Polyana Viana | 36c | 90,072$32,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,462.38 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Polyana Viana | 36c | 72,719$26,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,447.65 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1136…0c2ebacked Alice Ardelean | 64c | 47,554$30,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,194.9 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Polyana Viana | 36c | 45,834$16,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,500.24 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…8d64backed Polyana Viana | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Polyana Viana | 36c | 20,000$7,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,200 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Polyana Viana | 37c | 13,500$4,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,994.99 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Polyana Viana | 35c | 12,311$4,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,308.85 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Polyana Viana | 37c | 10,631$3,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,894.96 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Polyana Viana | 36c | 10,609$3,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,819.38 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9d…b730backed Alice Ardelean | 64c | 10,000$6,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,599.99 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +45%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…b3b4backed Polyana Viana | 36c | 8,525$3,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,068.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked Polyana Viana | 36c | 7,800$2,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,808 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Polyana Viana | 36c | 7,800$2,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,808 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…6280backed Polyana Viana | 36c | 7,800$2,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,807.98 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Alice Ardelean | 63c | 6,888$4,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,548.55 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked Alice Ardelean | 69c | 6,180$4,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,945.02 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Polyana Viana | 36c | 5,260$1,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.71 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Polyana Viana | 13c | 4,860$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.49 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Polyana Viana | 35c | 4,694$1,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,642.79 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Polyana Viana | 13c | 3,871$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.51 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Polyana Viana | 27c | 3,530$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.43 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f4…2b15backed Polyana Viana | 13c | 3,078$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.34 | 161 | 56.5%91 W · 70 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Polyana Viana | 35c | 2,907$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.79 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe988…cf23backed Polyana Viana | 36c | 2,730$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Polyana Viana | 35c | 2,426$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.15 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c31…5240backed Polyana Viana | 38c | 2,105$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Polyana Viana | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.01 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Polyana Viana | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Alice Ardelean | 76c | 1,735$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.03 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Alice Ardelean | 63c | 1,575$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.58 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1b…724fbacked Alice Ardelean | 64c | 1,569$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.84 | 49 | 81.6%40 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef50…e3bdbacked Alice Ardelean | 64c | 1,563$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Polyana Viana | 24c | 1,419$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.92 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Polyana Viana | 1c | 1,341$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Polyana Viana | 37c | 1,263$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.84 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Polyana Viana | 9c | 1,242$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…3426backed Polyana Viana | 16c | 1,226$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 32.6%45 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Polyana Viana | 9c | 1,172$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.62 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…1b86backed Polyana Viana | 36c | 1,170$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.2 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Polyana Viana | 36c | 1,121$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.52 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Alice Ardelean | 65c | 1,068$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.54 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Polyana Viana | 36c | 1,032$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.38 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Alice Ardelean | 63c | 1,006$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.04 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Alice Ardelean | 64c | 1,003$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.2 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Alice Ardelean | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Polyana Viana | 21c | 934.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 263 | 52.1%137 W · 126 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Polyana Viana | 36c | 828.08$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Polyana Viana | 13c | 806.33$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.15 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Polyana Viana | 37c | 794.49$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.96 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Polyana Viana | 35c | 788.67$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.15 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…0f85backed Polyana Viana | 38c | 773.08$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.4 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…d80bbacked Polyana Viana | 38c | 770$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.6 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Alice Ardelean | 63c | 718.37$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.8 | 52 | 73.1%38 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Polyana Viana | 36c | 716.08$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.79 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Polyana Viana | 9c | 618$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed1…1657backed Polyana Viana | 36c | 615.61$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Alice Ardelean | 64c | 600$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Alice Ardelean | 64c | 600$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Polyana Viana | 34c | 553.85$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Polyana Viana | 37c | 550$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x840c…162abacked Polyana Viana | 39c | 545.78$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…029bbacked Polyana Viana | 30c | 532.83$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.96 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Polyana Viana | 37c | 530.01$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.09 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…fd52backed Polyana Viana | 11c | 522.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Polyana Viana | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…fe3abacked Alice Ardelean | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Alice Ardelean | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…982fbacked Polyana Viana | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Alice Ardelean | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 355 | 64.5%229 W · 126 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Alice Ardelean | 63c | 499.98$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…d848backed Alice Ardelean | 64c | 472.73$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.77 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Polyana Viana | 8c | 472.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Alice Ardelean | 62c | 443.48$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.52 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb73…1e52backed Polyana Viana | 9c | 437.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Polyana Viana | 23c | 426.94$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…909dbacked Alice Ardelean | 64c | 412.5$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Alice Ardelean | 63c | 405.93$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.44 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd296…084dbacked Polyana Viana | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…7918backed Polyana Viana | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429e…41bdbacked Polyana Viana | 36c | 392.85$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.43 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x106e…e672backed Polyana Viana | 36c | 390$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +66%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Alice Ardelean | 63c | 386.42$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.87 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed99…2677backed Alice Ardelean | 63c | 350.71$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.76 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ab…97b6backed Alice Ardelean | 62c | 325.96$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Alice Ardelean | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Alice Ardelean | 61c | 313.83$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 417 | 54%225 W · 192 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…9ae0backed Polyana Viana | 16c | 313.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Alice Ardelean | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Polyana Viana | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Alice Ardelean | 65c | 300$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Polyana Viana | 8c | 288$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Polyana Viana | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda79…daecbacked Polyana Viana | 38c | 276.33$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.44 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Polyana Viana | 37c | 271.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…c6f9backed Alice Ardelean | 63c | 269.84$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Polyana Viana | 16c | 267.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Alice Ardelean win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.