UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee78653132b7e9011d18dff16c7567ec1f6c193910591cc05719f156b769cf32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 61c | 52,823$32,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,457.45 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Under | 38c | 51,990$20,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,977.44 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Over | 62c | 1,197$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 41c | 1,142$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.85 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 39c | 641.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.03 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Under | 37c | 606.62$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.45 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05d…ac5ebacked Over | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 39c | 431.23$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.05 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 61c | 426.81$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.36 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ac…b73dbacked Under | 39c | 167.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.46 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 62c | 129.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Over | 61c | 115.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 39c | 110.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Under | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f43…f730backed Over | 63c | 79.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Under | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 37c | 72.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 39c | 57.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 62c | 56.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6e…271bbacked Under | 39c | 54.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…f69dbacked Under | 39c | 51.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Under | 37c | 49.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.44per pick | 46cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…ce0fbacked Over | 61c | 48.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…6d55backed Under | 39c | 47.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976f…8a71backed Over | 62c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…eeabbacked Over | 62c | 32.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…8c33backed Under | 39c | 31.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Over | 66c | 22.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b4…1fc5backed Over | 62c | 20.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)Alice Ardelean won
- Will Alice Ardelean win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.