Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf69532e65491a92b693f330befbcd2e1e8650c9bed42c22bfd3e04ec4e658559
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 12,473$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 4c | 2,471$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,027$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,910$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f44…fa88backed Yes | 5c | 1,767$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…7664backed Yes | 3c | 1,600$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,520$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,486$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 7c | 1,477$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 4c | 1,277$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 1,176$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 5c | 1,112$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c8…044abacked Yes | 4c | 987.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7e…47d1backed Yes | 4c | 969.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…54b0backed Yes | 4c | 910$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ca…95fbbacked Yes | 4c | 907$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d48…9763backed Yes | 7c | 869$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf185…3631backed Yes | 7c | 864$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b4…880cbacked Yes | 6c | 856$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8648…8cbcbacked Yes | 6c | 856$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 771.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…9095backed Yes | 4c | 744$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…ecb6backed Yes | 4c | 743.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 5c | 737.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 699$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 3c | 674.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…4c7cbacked Yes | 6c | 655$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ce…db89backed Yes | 6c | 655$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 5c | 609.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…43eebacked Yes | 3c | 585.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 2c | 575$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 95 | 24.2%23 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 5c | 550$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 4c | 520.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5753…fa31backed Yes | 7c | 455.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a5…ef2ebacked Yes | 5c | 366.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 7c | 359.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 7c | 357.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 6c | 349.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 4c | 305.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 7c | 252.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 9c | 235$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…d242backed Yes | 6c | 200.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +783.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?this page
- Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?No won
- Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.