Tweets · resolved market
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7aa117977f6d5bdda20d9cab8c53e0abea481d998d385c0b44153df24cd5ab00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 25c | 694.14$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.71 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed Yes | 34c | 521.77$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.4 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…66bdbacked Yes | 38c | 269.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 185.5$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 66c | 182.06$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 62c | 167.3$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 64c | 159.84$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 30c | 156$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 66c | 129.95$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed Yes | 29c | 104.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 102.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 99.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 93.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 89.66$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…cca7backed Yes | 57c | 86.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 79.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 47c | 73.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 70.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…e7acbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 29c | 62.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 66c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…b2eabacked No | 68c | 55.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4261…16dfbacked Yes | 27c | 54.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 66c | 52.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 48.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…aa50backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 47c | 37.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…27a6backed No | 74c | 36.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed No | 75c | 31.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 69c | 24.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 23.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7843…fd3cbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e33…7deebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda71…799dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?this page
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.