Tweets · resolved market
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa01eeff4871105a313310ee210e7ff5c02f1b3f9959ca97e75e2cebcc829bd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 28c | 419.43$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.69 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…8409backed Yes | 69c | 419.02$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 35c | 296.53$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 70c | 285.92$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 67c | 284.52$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…66bdbacked Yes | 56c | 270$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 56c | 225.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.94 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 76c | 205$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 32c | 185.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 43c | 180.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 35c | 175.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 36c | 155.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…e7acbacked No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 34c | 132.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…e279backed Yes | 66c | 132.7$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked Yes | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 38c | 93.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 31c | 83.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 79.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 28c | 77.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 67.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed No | 27c | 67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 28c | 65.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 29c | 61.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 54c | 59.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 26c | 54.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 53c | 53.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 31c | 47.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 217 | 57.6%125 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…b2eabacked Yes | 67c | 44.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Yes | 56c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e56…95aabacked Yes | 62c | 40.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…77a4backed No | 50c | 39.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked Yes | 69c | 37.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 56c | 35.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 64c | 31.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 50c | 31.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 64c | 26.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d32…0457backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 67c | 18.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?this page
- Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.