TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,845
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,544

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,845 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed No72c13,156$9,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,749.37922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+215.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes29c5,328$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.1934333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed Yes33c5,316$1,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750.568042.5%34 W · 46 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes22c4,515$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.4215150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked Yes31c3,794$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.611172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+219.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c2,200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2260%0 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes18c2,171$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.936141%25 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes29c2,143$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.8214356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed Yes30c2,000$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.737448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4c1…f022backed No52c1,919$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.391172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick43cpaid+114%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No66c1,505$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.5321161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes43c1,150$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.98683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes38c999.95$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.585547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes50c747$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.516750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2128…f203backed Yes3c602.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.361050%5 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+91.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No76c541.28$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.578332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed Yes33c509.71$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.645141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes49c499.96$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.9831434.1%107 W · 207 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No74c489.15$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.549035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No65c462.07$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.443743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No53c434.86$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.629647.9%46 W · 50 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes46c372.61$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.423040%12 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x897a…4194backed No52c367.24$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.055754.4%31 W · 26 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes32c342.63$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick16cpaid+653.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ae0…b747backed Yes42c324.04$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.622334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No68c305.08$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.179343%40 W · 53 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes32c266$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8212643.7%55 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed No64c257.58$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.447338.4%28 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No78c243.76$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.196036.7%22 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes32c241.98$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.435547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c209$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7433238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c202.43$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3812545.6%57 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d32…e863backed No58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No69c170$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0810034%34 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x738a…5996backed No52c169.23$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.231656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No72c159.8$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3818041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No68c150$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488550.6%43 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x054d…97c5backed Yes25c148.21$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.061546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x384f…58adbacked Yes53c148.15$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.37580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed No53c144.39$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.872634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No54c137.88$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7318237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x740f…a87ebacked No57c135.86$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb5f…c111backed Yes50c134$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.56425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-66.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No75c120$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.745637.5%21 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No67c107$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.884531.1%14 W · 31 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-44.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.37639.5%30 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.24833.3%16 W · 32 L-7.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-41.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3080…337bbacked Yes30c95.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.545030%15 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No54c95$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.517140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf44…74d8backed Yes53c94.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26e7…48afbacked No60c90$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No55c89$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1610048%48 W · 52 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No79c88$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7812049.2%59 W · 61 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes31c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.963644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No70c80$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.967451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes50c79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.57326%19 W · 54 L-10.6wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2f8d…8cdcbacked Yes52c79$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes42c77.56$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8133421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a82…abeabacked No59c74$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.233100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+101.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No63c68$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.964346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No55c67.03$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8866914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x98db…bf6cbacked Yes31c63.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No51c62.81$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5314729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.183560%21 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No62c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.984555.6%25 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes31c59.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.723661.1%22 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes34c52.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0513546.7%63 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7be4…8477backed No78c50.1$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.02475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.54156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e48…1bf2backed Yes52c47.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4c9…d2ebbacked Yes52c44.82$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed No67c40.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.534134.1%14 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-43.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.684047.5%19 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-24%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.783148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x497b…0a10backed Yes46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83f4…c2a8backed No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.96771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+29.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No79c39.81$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.299578.9%75 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick74cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No57c39.28$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7316833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4eb4…b673backed No67c36.84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x079c…363fbacked Yes31c35.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b6…6c51backed No67c35.67$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b33…3134backed Yes58c34.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0518…5da2backed No50c33.2$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.471163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No71c32.83$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.494143.9%18 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No59c31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.658535.3%30 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4629…f3b1backed No57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.842653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb13c…fc9bbacked No63c29.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.07475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7928…6c26backed No47c25.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9129…dd8ebacked No60c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.823333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8278…ec8cbacked No70c21.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.341675%12 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb141…aa3bbacked No73c20.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.472060%12 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ea8…6256backed No75c20.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.04683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+43.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcc4…f3dabacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.58966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.541163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+28.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce98…5614backed No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.18887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick62cpaid+53.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x321e…9292backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.561752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+43.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda71…799dbacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.48825%2 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-63.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0479…8177backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.32520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick62cpaid-65.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12f5…5ac4backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.681136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.