Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x016fbba075191c3366e459c5997a8b7253299ede03fd132f12f4fcac0f1e8a20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 51c | 6,403$3,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,293.07 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e4…dfc2backed Yes | 49c | 6,370$3,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,251.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 53c | 4,139$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,933.85 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 66c | 2,961$1,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,954.36 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 17c | 2,159$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,801.89 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 33c | 1,335$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.66 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 19c | 845.43$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.04 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 16c | 804.98$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.02 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…e2cbbacked No | 15c | 644.47$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 72c | 642.33$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.19 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 517.01$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.89 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…f203backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 50c | 431.63$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.82 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +219.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 393.93$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 70c | 392.89$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.02 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…b747backed Yes | 13c | 362.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.83 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 14c | 340.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.44 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 331.57$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.03 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 76c | 275.77$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 76c | 269$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.44 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 50c | 253$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.34 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 50c | 242$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.05 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 11c | 191.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.64 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 12c | 186$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.68 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 17c | 182.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 16c | 181.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 20c | 169.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 57c | 168.62$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 17c | 168.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.23 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 30c | 168.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 19c | 153.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 128$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 47c | 127$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 113$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 112$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.34 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed Yes | 13c | 106$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 12c | 105.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 13c | 105$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 28c | 103.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 101.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 14c | 100.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 14c | 100.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.41 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +144%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 92.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 13c | 90.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 15c | 85.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…6944backed Yes | 22c | 81.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 23c | 78.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 36c | 72.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 19c | 71.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 61.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 17c | 59.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 30c | 48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 29c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 30.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 39c | 27.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea8…6256backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 78c | 18.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…9ff3backed No | 77c | 17.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?this page
- Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09?No won
- Will Howard Steven Rance be the Republican nominee for FL-09?No won
- Will Jorge Malavet be the Republican nominee for FL-09?No won
- Will Jorge Martinez be the Republican nominee for FL-09?No won
- Will Justin Story be the Republican nominee for FL-09?No won
- Will Marcus Carter be the Republican nominee for FL-09?No won
- Will Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.