Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7901de05519074904f7a1cf6e3e265af4a3e672321a2e3475277ec6449c41018
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd069…d078backed No | 0c | 42,930$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed No | 0c | 4,906$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 153 | 12.4%19 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 17c | 530.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.2 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 41c | 450.51$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.74 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 41c | 435.97$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.1 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 17c | 397.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.78 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 16c | 385.03$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.59 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 38c | 378.81$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.95 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 296.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.14 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 19c | 263.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.14 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d8…be73backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Yes | 31c | 240$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 7c | 229.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…23a6backed No | 30c | 219.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 199.94$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.95 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 68c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 143.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.22 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked No | 15c | 142.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 15c | 120.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 74 | 10.8%8 W · 66 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…b9ccbacked No | 22c | 118.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5aa6backed Yes | 31c | 114.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 99 | 24.2%24 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 48c | 110.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 13c | 103$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 47c | 101.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…a4d7backed Yes | 34c | 99.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 12c | 96.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 88.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb9…0754backed Yes | 33c | 82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 39c | 78.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 15c | 74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 73.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 51c | 68.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…eff6backed Yes | 18c | 65.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 50.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 43c | 47.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 36.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 34c | 34.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ef…91fdbacked No | 66c | 34.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 33.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 60c | 28.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda71…799dbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 17.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.