Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdec7721ef28a5ce0544d7d33bfef68ac352f5e1720b158edf84813c7318186ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Yes | 2c | 5,200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 1c | 4,960$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed Yes | 0c | 3,812$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 153 | 12.4%19 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed Yes | 31c | 2,208$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 61c | 912.99$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.23 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 29c | 732.4$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.48 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…c922backed Yes | 78c | 628.95$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfea…c839backed Yes | 47c | 620.06$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 30c | 616.49$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.25 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb2…9aa8backed No | 55c | 550.67$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 33c | 470.9$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.57 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 56c | 450.3$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.01 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 427.25$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.4 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…23a6backed No | 30c | 367.97$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.58 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 56c | 352.29$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.66 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 60c | 298.51$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.38 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…8d4cbacked Yes | 59c | 263.24$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.1 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa068…4390backed Yes | 66c | 186.38$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.46 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5aa6backed No | 46c | 179.39$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.52 | 99 | 24.2%24 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed No | 10c | 165.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.65 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 8c | 152.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 56c | 150$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 148.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 32c | 147.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 80c | 128.9$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 18c | 122$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 58c | 114.34$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4001…5010backed Yes | 40c | 91.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb9…0754backed Yes | 39c | 82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 66c | 80.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…e651backed Yes | 26c | 80.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 15c | 78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 74 | 10.8%8 W · 66 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 58c | 66.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 66.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Yes | 24c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 51.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 69c | 51.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 51.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 41c | 49.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb850…3808backed Yes | 62c | 46.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +203.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ef…c3d2backed Yes | 54c | 44.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 42.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 37c | 41.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 28c | 39.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked No | 44c | 38.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 35.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 38c | 34.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 34.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…5ab1backed No | 56c | 34.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 42c | 28.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…eec3backed Yes | 48c | 25.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked Yes | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 54c | 20.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf45f…dbfdbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a57…0358backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 79c | 16.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.