Middle East · resolved market
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81ca1a75666b8984128f7ef015ae0ea7a51a6aa863b714afb44cfdad99ffece2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $372,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $381,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $372,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 380 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 63c | 37,924$24,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,054.97 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…64b0backed Yes | 46c | 31,600$14,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,161.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 31,135$12,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,914.74 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 59c | 17,107$10,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,043.52 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 35c | 15,761$5,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,224.7 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 45c | 15,703$7,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,697.41 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 57c | 14,917$8,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,448.05 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 27c | 12,752$3,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,503.98 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 29c | 12,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,500 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 59c | 10,690$6,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,272.56 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 52c | 7,035$3,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,392.32 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 80c | 6,596$5,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.53 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 30c | 6,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,200 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4610backed Yes | 37c | 5,424$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,424.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 54c | 4,960$2,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.22 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 54c | 4,717$2,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,181.23 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 64c | 4,394$2,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,802.39 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked No | 24c | 4,000$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 63c | 3,880$2,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.91 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8c1cbacked Yes | 66c | 3,640$2,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.46 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 50c | 2,909$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.71 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 71c | 2,822$2,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,015.13 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 62c | 2,706$1,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,676 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed No | 67c | 2,600$1,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,743.96 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 61c | 2,507$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.98 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…13a7backed Yes | 48c | 2,423$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 47c | 2,417$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.14 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 55c | 2,391$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.83 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked Yes | 34c | 2,329$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.21 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 76c | 2,303$1,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.27 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…d0dbbacked Yes | 40c | 2,211$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 57c | 2,168$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.25 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed Yes | 39c | 2,091$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.19 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 61c | 2,049$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.99 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x277e…7d32backed Yes | 54c | 2,000$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.98 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 33c | 1,946$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.38 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 56c | 1,924$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.26 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 47c | 1,900$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.58 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 59c | 1,821$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.09 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077e…06d2backed No | 60c | 1,770$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc70…cc56backed No | 61c | 1,757$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.87 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 53c | 1,665$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.02 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed No | 51c | 1,645$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.94 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…86d2backed Yes | 58c | 1,545$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 35c | 1,515$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.6 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…5d75backed Yes | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 35c | 1,500$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.22 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 41c | 1,441$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.24 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 34c | 1,359$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.76 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd726…b5c9backed Yes | 26c | 1,359$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.5 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x83f8…f751backed No | 19c | 1,315$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 1,270$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.59 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 33c | 1,259$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.63 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked No | 63c | 1,200$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.99 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -11.4wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 60c | 1,080$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.05 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 63c | 1,056$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.45 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 56c | 1,055$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.89 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 63c | 999.99$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdb…8ffcbacked Yes | 61c | 994.13$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed No | 58c | 986.67$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.73 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No | 22c | 986.56$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.33 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 58c | 977.64$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.55 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed No | 60c | 976.74$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.2 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 38c | 938.83$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked No | 54c | 900$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.75 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124f…0deabacked No | 64c | 858.37$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.5 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 49c | 855.58$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.48 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…6e8bbacked Yes | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed No | 70c | 805.42$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.24 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 68c | 800.48$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.98 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…11e3backed No | 56c | 799.99$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 24c | 799.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.21 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…83f9backed No | 39c | 745.77$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.37 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 55c | 700.06$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.33 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 48c | 695$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.55 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 12c | 689.13$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7803…9e91backed No | 64c | 683.26$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.96 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed Yes | 42c | 656.74$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.74 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x121d…832abacked Yes | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 600$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…6d71backed No | 63c | 600$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66be…1148backed Yes | 56c | 590.26$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.11 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 36c | 586.92$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.97 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 59c | 585.5$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.65 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked No | 71c | 582.43$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.27 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 41c | 567.83$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.66 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…5fe8backed No | 39c | 560.13$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.1 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.24per pick | 28cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5b…1a6dbacked No | 59c | 546.94$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.16 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed No | 53c | 540$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.9 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…9a17backed No | 61c | 532.06$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc3…084abacked Yes | 48c | 531.53$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 54c | 525.99$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.75 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 62c | 524.92$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 31c | 509.58$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.12 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 59c | 505.62$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.48 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a48…e094backed Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed Yes | 39c | 500$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked No | 54c | 499.99$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?this page
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?Yes won
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Yes won
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.