Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3879c49867859acd44dc6fcb3966accf260d7e3685df55c1d49cbf43f6fbb75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Down | 11c | 14,814$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.93 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 12c | 5,304$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.25 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9da0…523cbacked Down | 15c | 4,114$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 10c | 2,348$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.11 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Down | 7c | 2,050$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.66 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 10c | 1,672$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.85 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Down | 8c | 1,405$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Down | 9c | 1,117$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.01 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 9c | 999.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Down | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Down | 9c | 450$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +99%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9800…d1b1backed Down | 5c | 343.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x131c…6816backed Down | 49c | 317.59$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Down | 10c | 305$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Down | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Up | 48c | 229.48$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…a94cbacked Down | 9c | 209.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Down | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bcfdbacked Up | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Down | 13c | 156.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…50c1backed Down | 9c | 112.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…98e3backed Down | 12c | 101$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Down | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…3b3dbacked Down | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea68…ff92backed Down | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda71…799dbacked Down | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…83f9backed Down | 45c | 86.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Up | 67c | 57.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Down | 33c | 35.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…c2b6backed Down | 58c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb91d…0f36backed Down | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a9…2ab0backed Down | 53c | 28.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…50e4backed Up | 75c | 20.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.