TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$330,094
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$240,727

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $330,094 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 366 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc41e…e2e9backed Yes0c15,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Yes32c11,611$3,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,667.222642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes32c10,713$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,420.2112234.4%42 W · 80 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0166…799cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No75c9,413$7,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,360.332166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+128.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c7,483$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.45583.4%2 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+202.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No73c7,352$5,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,986.416943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed Yes23c7,290$1,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,690.56728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick16cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dda…df45backed Yes43c6,946$2,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,988.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No73c6,457$4,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,730.281963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+22.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1925…b15dbacked Yes28c5,693$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea0d…5866backed Yes44c5,085$2,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,236.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0596…5acfbacked Yes0c4,979$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ab0…9578backed Yes32c4,892$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.4840%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x571e…6870backed Yes43c4,648$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes18c4,590$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.227121.1%15 W · 56 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-51.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa897…73a2backed Yes49c4,574$2,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,241.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x914a…920fbacked Yes12c4,261$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes18c4,133$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.5814661%89 W · 57 L+10.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x472a…2dadbacked Yes23c4,092$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.71333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-57.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdde…f383backed Yes46c3,272$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5999…ae94backed Yes26c3,130$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.081163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0b2…b200backed Yes7c3,024$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,753$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.414629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No66c2,300$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.993754.1%20 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb5…3ae0backed Yes11c2,265$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d3f…fec2backed No50c2,017$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes25c2,000$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5081145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+165.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fac…2f27backed No70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-76.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No73c1,838$1,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.762161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe45b…8433backed Yes7c1,837$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes27c1,834$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.35131.4%16 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90e2…7babbacked Yes11c1,783$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.13666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19a2…8601backed Yes15c1,684$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+56.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No68c1,519$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.923759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x81b7…d59fbacked Yes42c1,505$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.14425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc734…182abacked Yes7c1,443$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…c4ddbacked Yes37c1,424$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea2…2d33backed No68c1,379$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.561090%9 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick64cpaid+44.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb0e…830cbacked Yes8c1,302$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No76c1,276$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.883447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No77c1,149$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.277842.3%33 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No78c1,105$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.634161%25 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c1,095$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.0916334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes18c1,075$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No64c1,049$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.453357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+41.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes22c1,003$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.72524%6 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked Yes41c1,000$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7d5…559ebacked Yes43c1,000$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x847e…9218backed Yes6c999.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-61.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes11c978.95$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.461533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+65.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes5c912.79$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.52695.8%4 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d8a…8730backed Yes7c900$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8b8…1ccabacked Yes8c855.28$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b52…9208backed Yes19c808.39$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes15c803.42$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.931428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c800$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5664.5%3 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c798.97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.451074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes7c783.77$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.63156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-80.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff04…d971backed Yes5c743.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40260%0 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes28c740.64$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.418923.6%21 W · 68 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes22c697.28$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.747844.9%35 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89ce…2edfbacked Yes13c684.97$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda78…f83abacked Yes6c669.61$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c55…03d7backed Yes13c669.6$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x956f…f960backed Yes25c666.96$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c651.89$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.96378.1%3 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc462…d348backed Yes20c635.17$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6404…e7e5backed Yes17c626.12$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x202d…c3b1backed Yes25c623.11$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd55c…d703backed Yes8c601.61$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x997d…decfbacked No56c595.89$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x884c…6262backed Yes31c594.31$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85f9…86ddbacked Yes42c593.6$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-63.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No76c585.4$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.43683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+90.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d81…5c1ebacked Yes17c576.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe661…7816backed No53c564.31$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes36c555$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.03540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed No77c555$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.871625%4 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-68.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd761…9c18backed Yes6c539.63$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe852…7ae4backed Yes12c520.39$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x87fe…3cbebacked Yes40c520$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3561…d279backed Yes26c516$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4377…1764backed Yes25c515.46$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e7…e2d9backed Yes6c508.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes23c503.39$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.483135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80de…2e87backed Yes22c502.79$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.06977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick54cpaid+29.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes17c500$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed No54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed No63c500$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-47.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d93…c2fbbacked Yes19c491.14$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No60c489$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No80c482.82$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.22450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes8c459.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ca…d09cbacked Yes24c456.31$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3229…9c46backed Yes28c451.92$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes33c448.84$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.211526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab3…a9c2backed Yes24c443.36$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed Yes26c430$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.91926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08f9…7eefbacked Yes21c419.08$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.