AI · resolved market
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x448504170dd2c04a3ab5e286c14ba69127ed3af5e66f2e370d43f4779363dd3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes | 13c | 4,997$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 8c | 3,404$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.43 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 3c | 2,831$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 6c | 2,100$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.25 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 25c | 1,921$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.52 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…068fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,602$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,566$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 19c | 1,300$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…6a24backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 3c | 1,248$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7a…d4bcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,075$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 61c | 1,073$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.48 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0326…5650backed Yes | 5c | 1,011$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 77c | 999.97$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.99 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…30adbacked Yes | 22c | 889.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 756.29$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.26 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…6c96backed Yes | 26c | 685.98$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 24c | 608.44$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.4 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…93f8backed Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 9c | 582.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 16c | 553.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b5…533bbacked Yes | 18c | 541$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…7509backed Yes | 13c | 504.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…fc4dbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 38c | 500$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…ffa4backed Yes | 22c | 490.87$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 457.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…8eefbacked Yes | 6c | 450$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 79c | 441.15$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.15 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…3eb6backed No | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 7c | 267.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 19c | 264.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…da8dbacked No | 72c | 234.33$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 15c | 233$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…addabacked Yes | 22c | 230.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1f…9f0ebacked Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…3065backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 18c | 213.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe95f…eb66backed Yes | 10c | 197.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 189.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…bf35backed No | 80c | 175.95$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 71c | 167.27$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…ced1backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 77c | 145.01$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…10e3backed Yes | 22c | 138.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 22c | 128.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 73c | 127.82$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 124$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 123.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 79c | 121.22$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked Yes | 23c | 120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e6…d114backed Yes | 23c | 117.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 19c | 113.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0085…a8fcbacked No | 79c | 109.54$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9617…ad6cbacked Yes | 36c | 102.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399b…35cdbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…970ebacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376e…d654backed No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x176f…460abacked Yes | 20c | 94.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 78c | 91.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 18c | 87.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 40c | 85.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…2cc7backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…cb08backed Yes | 28c | 70.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…43ebbacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…973ebacked Yes | 17c | 63.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…6e31backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…0d41backed No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 50.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e9…441abacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…1175backed Yes | 35c | 48.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2d…ba13backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 73c | 23.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1a…c7b1backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…179ebacked No | 73c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…afecbacked No | 78c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…7ff5backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?this page
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.