TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9b96…d0bc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: Weather, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 54 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT5863.8%37 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$67.96
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.2
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on July 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$37
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$5.27
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.13
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.9
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.7
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+25%+$5.05
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$5.76
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$7.8
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$6.9
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.1
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$10.8
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.96
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.6
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$16.4
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+62.2%+$18.02
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$9.9
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$10.2
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$29.6
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+68.5%+$16.27
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$11.2
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$10.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+25%+$5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.