Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6147e93fa67a12b27f30e66b68d2b100e3bce28a5dc540e1794dc4a18cd538d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9d0…cfb6backed No | 1c | 2,083$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 45c | 1,413$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.1 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 5c | 1,115$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 5c | 1,019$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 1,016$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.51 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 793.25$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 786.03$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 80c | 587$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 42c | 578.89$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.73 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…8874backed No | 7c | 482.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 65c | 450.32$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 47c | 421.11$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.26 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 4c | 412.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 395.22$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.92 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 374.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 356.94$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 29c | 344.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.23 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 4c | 318.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 26c | 304.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 289.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.49 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 268$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 65c | 204.92$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.92 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 58c | 199.97$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 66c | 199.85$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 194.49$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 11c | 162.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 161.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.03 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 46c | 151$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 150.43$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.62 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 148$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.72 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 30c | 145.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc037…924abacked No | 71c | 141.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 55c | 139.38$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.06 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 55c | 132.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 8c | 131.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 117.65$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 36c | 111.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…80a2backed No | 38c | 109.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 62c | 108$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 33c | 107.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 104.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 15c | 103.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.18 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 66c | 101.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 32c | 99.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 57c | 99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 95.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 50c | 94.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 93.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 90.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 82.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 38c | 81.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 26c | 80.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 30c | 72.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb679…dbb1backed Yes | 41c | 72.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 65c | 67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 65.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 45c | 64.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 43c | 61.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 61.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 61c | 60.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 36c | 60.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 59.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 67c | 59.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 60c | 55.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…c88fbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 35c | 54.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 34c | 54.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 68c | 53.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 45c | 52.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ee…bbbcbacked Yes | 45c | 52.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…11f4backed Yes | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 64c | 48.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 47.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576d…adddbacked Yes | 43c | 47.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 46.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88cb…153bbacked Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 26c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 58c | 44.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 64c | 44.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 42c | 41.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…08e3backed Yes | 32c | 41.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 43c | 40.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…adbdbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 64c | 39.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.