Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d0bea800f639b3c77a634291e2f121dcfc009307c51b8840b012efff4236469
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 16c | 1,762$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.12 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 1,391$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 42c | 1,332$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.72 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d0…cfb6backed Yes | 4c | 1,205$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,154$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.74 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,115$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 22c | 966.56$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.12 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 9c | 774.52$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 21c | 584.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 8c | 504.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 426.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 38c | 414.04$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.08 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…d952backed No | 74c | 403.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.93 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 62cpaid | -56%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 356.8$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 10c | 294.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 25c | 289.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 70c | 269.13$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 21c | 268.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed No | 75c | 261.53$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…953fbacked Yes | 8c | 254.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 242.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 241.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 5c | 227.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 42c | 202.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.45 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Yes | 49c | 163.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 27c | 157.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…6e26backed No | 62c | 155.22$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 155$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 149.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 7c | 135.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 43c | 132.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…e3fcbacked Yes | 46c | 131.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 121.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 114.31$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 111.92$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 98.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 95.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 84.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 79.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 75.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 31c | 74.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 77c | 69.12$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 68.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 46c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 36c | 59.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 23c | 59.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 31c | 58.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 57.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 25c | 55.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 55.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 45c | 54.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 75c | 53.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 42c | 52.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 40c | 49.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7535…59bdbacked No | 63c | 49.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 47.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 44.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 41.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 30c | 39.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 57c | 39.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 41c | 39.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…3f76backed No | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…3368backed Yes | 28c | 38.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…ee09backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 77c | 34.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 30.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4235…81e4backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 28.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 37c | 27.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 27.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 43c | 27.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 59c | 25.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ae…d103backed No | 79c | 24.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 23.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 58c | 20.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 59c | 19.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…20d1backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 13.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.