Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64a3086a466d6bab4d667546a1b7c44110c02207413634cf0764d7dfa1f3760a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 24c | 778.03$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.93 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 694.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 8c | 671.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 77c | 591.46$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.58 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 9c | 581.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 15c | 550$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 20c | 488.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 10c | 388.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 365$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 7c | 346.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 330$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 22c | 303$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 12c | 254.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 253.55$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 241.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 16c | 237.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 29c | 232.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 12c | 228.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 199.42$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…6e26backed Yes | 23c | 193.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 11c | 183.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 45c | 173.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 171.93$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb679…dbb1backed Yes | 18c | 169.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 146.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 74c | 135.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 130.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 19c | 127.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 28c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed No | 74c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 101.09$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…416cbacked Yes | 11c | 98.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 19c | 97.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 95.3$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 13c | 94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 93.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 11c | 90.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 68c | 87.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 79.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 71c | 74.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 72.06$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 66.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…8874backed No | 79c | 61.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 59.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 58.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…3830backed Yes | 61c | 57.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 23c | 57.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 34c | 53.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 79c | 52.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…11f4backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…bc60backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 49.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 37c | 48.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 26c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 47.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 23c | 46.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 44.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…3f76backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 33.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 28.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 72c | 21.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 20.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…c37cbacked No | 75c | 13.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.