TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,413
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,127

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,413 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3290…53cbbacked Yes35c2,993$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,946.679020%18 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No51c642$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.2239952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes34c519.63$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.838025%20 W · 60 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes23c489.72$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.1110414.4%15 W · 89 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No70c453.04$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.1723551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes23c406.53$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.2223723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No40c398.42$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.117057.1%40 W · 30 L+7.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No69c392$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.935258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No59c377.73$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.0521854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No78c358.18$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.9616051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee49…155ebacked Yes23c354.66$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.662842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes31c353.66$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.6616934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes66c349.93$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.2214842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes38c327.24$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.412640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No69c315.48$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.812055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5484…84e8backed No70c296.2$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.52757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No9c291.23$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1514553.8%78 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35f7…8058backed No74c268.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No58c257.1$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.114753.7%79 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes32c250.95$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.952025%5 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-47.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes31c246.98$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.312816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bdd…0872backed Yes21c233.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.313026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-36.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No79c216.08$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.4734354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fcd…82e4backed Yes22c215.33$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.551118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick12cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No60c215.21$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.875062%31 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No67c213$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.4836055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes22c207.02$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.0132639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No44c205.68$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0818348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes34c198.31$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.956330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes72c193.44$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5423044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No19c192.68$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3115056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No53c191.04$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.714954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No37c190.6$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3215954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No14c177.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.927526.7%20 W · 55 L+9.2wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+63.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes34c174.77$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.744052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes38c173.14$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1626632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3721…3abebacked Yes28c172.52$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.572634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick27cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No76c170$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7515766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No35c167.07$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7216755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb07c…6c36backed Yes47c160.03$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.68944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes48c160$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.266448.4%31 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No62c155.27$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.814445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes28c149.25$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.256126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes61c141.02$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.38736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No69c137.19$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3216450.6%83 W · 81 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes23c136.61$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.7739231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No39c135.85$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.662166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+42.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc7d2…9145backed Yes16c134.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.13425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes27c132.95$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.4718638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes36c130.24$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.695536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c130.15$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1340648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes25c129.97$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.48234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-82.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No53c129$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3713243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes22c123.35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.691,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed No72c118.03$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.982045%9 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-24.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed Yes42c113.36$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.432759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes29c112.87$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.7318662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No73c110.35$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.985072%36 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes24c110.07$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.155952.5%31 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No54c110.01$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3344428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x0d14…c13abacked Yes12c110$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.8520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No51c109.28$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.027741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes36c108.28$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.263360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes23c101.56$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.348038.8%31 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817450%37 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No69c94.93$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.927438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb344…0e61backed No41c90.63$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No75c90$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5214467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc6…d496backed Yes43c87.27$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.391181.8%9 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.37per pick45cpaid+88.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No72c87.18$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5216051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No37c85.36$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5816852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes23c85.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5532354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No76c84$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.428672.1%62 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No78c80$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.642751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c77.89$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0588448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No79c75$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9526355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes19c73$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.49933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes27c70.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7213348.1%64 W · 69 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes36c70.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.122544%11 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes32c70$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.616738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes42c70$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.611045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes47c70$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.767248.6%35 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No58c69.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.994551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No71c68.17$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5514351.7%74 W · 69 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes52c67.97$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.555427.8%15 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x262f…2198backed No74c67.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No57c67.6$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3121844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ad…a1c7backed Yes30c67.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+235.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No57c65.92$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.311764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+44.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No78c65$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.531152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No37c64.41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0916254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes32c63.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2812238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed Yes56c62.94$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.721353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes50c62.24$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0913357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes17c60.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.221353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+49.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes30c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.873046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc29…66b4backed Yes30c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No66c50.12$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2115558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce1…712bbacked No69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.