World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x429d4aa7337c7f12bc8215a475091ca29983ec03000c94ccb9243f8fc2c7a490
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 950.24$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.41 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 837.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 10c | 822.92$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.93 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 1c | 797.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 14c | 653.75$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…e3fdbacked Yes | 10c | 454.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 370.04$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 14c | 366.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 361.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 22c | 326.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…7676backed Yes | 19c | 300$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +296.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 289.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 22c | 277.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 8c | 269.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 268.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 29c | 260.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 77c | 245.01$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Yes | 24c | 233.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 226.08$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 7c | 194.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 178.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 15c | 174.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 170$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 166.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 12c | 159.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 24c | 155.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 140.14$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee49…155ebacked No | 75c | 132.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 24c | 125.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 121.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 20c | 119$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…b37dbacked Yes | 25c | 116.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 27c | 111.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 105.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 10c | 103.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 20c | 103$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 14c | 102.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39d3backed Yes | 18c | 102.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed Yes | 15c | 102.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 75c | 97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…9862backed Yes | 19c | 96.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…82e4backed Yes | 22c | 92.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 21c | 89.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 79c | 88.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 27c | 85.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 19c | 84.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 78.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 15c | 77.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 76.87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 49.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 31c | 47.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 29c | 41.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1f…b7bdbacked No | 75c | 39.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 38.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 80c | 37.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 74c | 34.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb25…68cbbacked No | 74c | 28.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9a…cf5bbacked No | 75c | 27.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 21.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74fa…7baabacked No | 75c | 21.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 21.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 74c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 77c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 78c | 17.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…24e8backed No | 75c | 15.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 14.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.