Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd768d8faf9efd60cd86a038bce70f4e6b947c703492422554a4fef187989b233
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 23c | 992.54$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.94 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 24c | 699.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.99 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 609.66$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 456.81$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 413.85$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 377.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 373$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 364.28$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 346.01$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 15c | 283.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.92 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 14c | 218.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 185.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 21c | 164.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.19 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 153.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…68d4backed Yes | 68c | 146.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 146.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 25c | 145.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 75c | 144.42$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 128.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.56 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 122$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 26c | 119.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.49 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 24c | 112.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 79c | 105$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 103.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 27c | 102$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 26c | 85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 30c | 84.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 78.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 74.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 70.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 64.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 78c | 61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 58.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 55.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 36c | 55.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…9a9ebacked No | 21c | 51.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 27c | 50.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 37c | 48.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 31c | 45.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…ca40backed No | 78c | 43.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 26c | 42.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 41.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 50c | 34.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 79c | 31.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…5d76backed Yes | 76c | 26.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0528…99dabacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb72f…4568backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…59bbbacked Yes | 78c | 22.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…9bcfbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 74cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 74c | 18.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 80c | 18.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 74c | 18.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 62c | 16.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 64c | 15.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 77c | 15.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 76c | 15.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 40°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.