Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x107fbd89c1543a4679a2d4835e47a65f2140dae24ea6aad961892ca26b1b1001
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 3c | 1,300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 38c | 1,241$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.26 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 1,147$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.99 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 31c | 808.66$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.52 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 699.96$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 653.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 602.98$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.12 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 381.8$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.07 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 373$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 305.41$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 32c | 302.79$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 32c | 300.56$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.23 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 255.43$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 255.06$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 225.16$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 194$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…72d2backed No | 65c | 158.03$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 35c | 150.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 68c | 147.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 147.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 37c | 108.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 103.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 98.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 54c | 91.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 40c | 86.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 60c | 86.03$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…548abacked Yes | 32c | 85.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 83.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 63c | 79.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 78.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 34c | 73.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 37c | 70.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 65.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 33c | 63.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 58.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 56.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 55.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…2377backed Yes | 37c | 54.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 36c | 53.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 35c | 51.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 39c | 51.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 36c | 50.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 63c | 48.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 54c | 43.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 43.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…433abacked No | 50c | 39.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 39.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 39c | 38.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 37.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 34.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…233fbacked No | 60c | 34.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 33c | 31.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a9…9642backed Yes | 33c | 31.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 58c | 30.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3530…d99abacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 29.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…c80ebacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…5115backed No | 68c | 27.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…0331backed No | 68c | 26.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e2…db13backed No | 67c | 25.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0f…431cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 19.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 64c | 17.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…a6e4backed No | 72c | 17.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…10edbacked No | 68c | 15.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 40°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.