Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x852549081d8e43dbc9c6636361eb81f4286dfad6e697478aff018370a57304f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 1c | 995.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 772.17$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 6c | 429$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 359.62$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 228.72$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 41c | 165$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 37c | 135.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…1a97backed Yes | 32c | 92.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 75.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 40c | 74.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 37c | 66.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 66.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 65.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 34c | 58.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 63c | 54.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 33c | 54.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 50.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 46.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 34c | 43.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 43.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 38.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 65c | 35.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 59c | 32.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 64c | 30.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 36c | 30.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 30.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 48c | 29.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 48c | 28.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 38c | 28.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 60c | 25.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed No | 67c | 25.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…94f3backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 60c | 20.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 62c | 19.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.