Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9f635b684c6ff28ce1f3536176e54b4c72665be617fdce498c393935d8f1ce6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 27c | 843.12$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 33c | 702.18$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.13 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 666.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 8c | 580.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 35c | 454.82$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.14 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 379.38$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 364.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 348.06$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 346.12$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 279.36$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 278.7$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 235.38$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 35c | 228$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 196$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 12c | 194.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 35c | 186.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 186.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 65c | 183$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 21c | 162.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 36c | 157.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 56c | 155.07$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 150.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 39c | 147.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 78c | 147.46$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 133.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 38c | 119.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 65c | 116.77$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 116.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 113.7$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 31c | 111.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 37c | 108$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 106.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 76c | 106.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 23c | 101.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…a7c3backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 97.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 72c | 96.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 77c | 96.23$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 27c | 90.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 41c | 84.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 81.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 33c | 81.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 35c | 80.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 78.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 29c | 76.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 75.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…a1a5backed Yes | 17c | 74.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 21c | 73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab0…06fdbacked No | 69c | 72.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 34c | 72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 36c | 67.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 36c | 66.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 40c | 66.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 36c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 26c | 64.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 61.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 71c | 60.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 59.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 54.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 66c | 50.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed Yes | 33c | 50.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 39c | 50.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 50.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 48.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0827…cdcfbacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 44.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 39.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x123c…c057backed Yes | 38c | 39.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…30a5backed Yes | 34c | 39.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…298abacked Yes | 51c | 39.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 73c | 38.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…8819backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 66c | 37.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 36.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18b…563ebacked Yes | 34c | 32.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 31.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 31.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C or below on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 40°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.