Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19b2bd13f6e80e29401469a00e9ad6061542af71aeee0961d8914a669221cd09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 43c | 781.64$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.64 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 610.53$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 566.05$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 531.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 14c | 437.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 375.62$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.55 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 368.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.2 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 80c | 359.42$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 7c | 332.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 30c | 329.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.72 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 301.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked No | 10c | 290.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 278.7$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0827…cdcfbacked Yes | 17c | 249.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 243.68$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.14 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 228.6$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 63c | 185.58$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.01 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 79c | 176.54$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.3 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 68c | 153.59$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 152.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 149.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 17c | 149.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.35 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 27c | 147.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 12c | 137.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 134.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked No | 24c | 131.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 69c | 104.16$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 100.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…a7c3backed No | 20c | 99.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 75c | 94.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 12c | 88.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 53c | 85.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 32c | 84.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 53c | 84.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 84.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 23c | 83.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d3…5122backed Yes | 80c | 79.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 39c | 78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 21c | 74.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 35c | 72.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 71.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 20c | 69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 17c | 59.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 74c | 56.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 58c | 55.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 54c | 49.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…ad01backed No | 42c | 47.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 68c | 47.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 66c | 44.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1d…dc67backed Yes | 31c | 39.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 42c | 37.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 30.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed Yes | 42c | 28.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 26.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 76c | 20.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 74c | 18.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 76c | 17.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed No | 76c | 15.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C or below on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 40°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.