Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95a5bab71e1333f1a9ce57dd7a3d54098424a499dad8ed2c11227601e1f79249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 23c | 1,792$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.73 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 1,120$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.63 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 925.62$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.3 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 898.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 364.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 309.3$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 230.74$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 221.18$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 214$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 76c | 213.31$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 193.92$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 185.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 68c | 183.18$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed Yes | 27c | 153.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 74c | 152.92$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 32c | 150.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 9c | 146.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 28c | 137.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 136.2$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 134.96$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 115.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9155…4511backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 94.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 93.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 91.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 87.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 75c | 77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 76.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 32c | 76.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 22c | 74.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 32c | 70.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 68.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 29c | 66.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 65.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…c32abacked Yes | 37c | 65.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 16c | 64.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 64.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 48c | 62.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 26c | 59.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 59.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 37c | 59.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 68c | 58.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 22c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 55.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 53.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 27c | 53.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 52.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 52.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 24c | 51.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 51.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 51.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e1…f883backed Yes | 27c | 46.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…29fdbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked No | 68c | 37.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 32c | 37.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 65c | 37.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 75c | 33.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 35c | 32.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 31.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 75c | 30.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 74c | 25.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 25.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 72c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 78c | 19.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…25f9backed No | 78c | 15.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…c37cbacked No | 73c | 13.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C or below on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 40°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.