Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdaef981ffaa92b0e25d7b1d70f54efadfa1e1a420915b30eacab2d7df5e33fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 1,313$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.84 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 1,298$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 3c | 1,239$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,142$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 1c | 1,112$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 25c | 494.55$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.33 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 74c | 364$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.48 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 348.23$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.04 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 335.45$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 18c | 313.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 264.36$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 204.6$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 8c | 147.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 129$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 72c | 127.65$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 71c | 123.89$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 31c | 109.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 25c | 108.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 103.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4323…f818backed Yes | 16c | 101.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30dd…3aa1backed Yes | 32c | 73.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 72c | 64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 61.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 34c | 58.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2013…7d68backed No | 79c | 55.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 52.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 51.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 76c | 42.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 40.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 35.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 70c | 33.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 33.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 32c | 32.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 31.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 70c | 19.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 70c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 16.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 74c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 15.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 14.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.