Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3002a08b4b7e758bd44b56c279f7649a941f5e3d957dd0d68017f6cad8a465cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,302$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.59 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 639.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 563.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 17c | 458.54$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 20c | 350.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 306.59$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.68 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 272.47$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 204.6$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 180$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 176$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 21c | 160.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 145.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 12c | 145.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 60c | 113$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 111.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 15c | 104.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 43c | 83.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed Yes | 22c | 71.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30dd…3aa1backed Yes | 23c | 71.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 58.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 57.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 35c | 56.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e8…2276backed No | 79c | 51.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 48.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 80c | 39.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 62c | 39.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 38.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 32.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 49c | 30.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 78c | 24.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…a29ebacked Yes | 66c | 22.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 22.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 16.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 15.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 15.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.