Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a8265a2dd5f53b7b9cb36af03da1103fa290738b47d0033c93a6b2410e879e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 1,529$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.31 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 365.72$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.03 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 363.94$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 260$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.4 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 257.75$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 34c | 203$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb41…685ebacked Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 192.59$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.93 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 187.78$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 174.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 152.14$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 68c | 135.18$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…0ec1backed No | 69c | 130$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 114.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 42c | 110$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 108.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.81 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 106.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 22c | 102.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 33c | 100.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 43c | 98.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 96.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 40c | 91.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 27c | 76.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 71.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 42c | 71.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 67.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 64.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 57.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3c…c6d8backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 61c | 49.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 44.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…a39dbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…0d81backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 39.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 28c | 36.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 25.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 25.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed Yes | 79c | 23.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec1…b807backed No | 75c | 22.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 59c | 20.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 75c | 18.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 61c | 16.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 16.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…79a1backed No | 71c | 14.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed No | 71c | 14.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 30°C or higher on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.