Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83e02b55775cd7d497154cc555c4e216e656db86a55a11d090b2cda833f55e2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 1,572$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.65 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 322$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.36 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 61c | 289.74$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 75c | 257.68$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 159.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 158.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 152$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 143.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 38c | 136.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 125$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 122.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 37c | 120$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 34c | 109.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 108.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…1652backed Yes | 15c | 106.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 103$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 16c | 100.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 91.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 79.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 19c | 78.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 74.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 73.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 32c | 73.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 69.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 21c | 62.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 29c | 48.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 41.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8c64backed No | 61c | 40.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 36.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba97…d2a3backed Yes | 40c | 34.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 33c | 34.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 75c | 29.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 63c | 29.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 72c | 29.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640c…7010backed Yes | 40c | 27.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 67c | 26.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 24.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 78c | 23.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…518dbacked No | 61c | 22.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 44cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 20.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0771…6d8dbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca6…8e5ebacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3c…c6d8backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 67c | 15.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 80c | 13.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 30°C or higher on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.