Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57a357ef13c685e2253606715d8fbf5169bfde7bdb2a6a959d183719e38a7eb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 913.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 400.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 32c | 314.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 31c | 301.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 25c | 300$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 297$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 286.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked No | 68c | 282.36$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 70c | 259.97$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 79c | 199.98$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 183.63$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 22c | 175.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 17c | 164$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 160$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 68c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 70c | 149.83$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 138.38$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 132.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…d08cbacked Yes | 15c | 129.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 27c | 129$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 126$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 20c | 119$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 25c | 100.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 82.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 14c | 72.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 22c | 71.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 18c | 68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 68c | 66.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 65.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 65.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 24c | 54.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 54.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 49.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 46.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 72c | 42.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 39.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 31c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 79c | 37.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 77c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 78c | 32.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…698cbacked No | 66c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 29.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 67c | 28.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 26.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 68c | 21.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 61c | 16.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 15.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.