TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,171
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,488

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,171 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbad9…2647backed No2c616.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.232913.8%4 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes60c566.92$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.758,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No22c387.81$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.796,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3929…afd2backed No40c378.32$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.491154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed No21c339.54$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3228244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes64c316.35$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.475,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No24c278.15$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes28c256.44$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.864,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No40c256.09$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.761,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No36c238.27$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb89b…1a22backed Yes59c220.34$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.349783.5%81 W · 16 L+26.5wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+58.5%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No48c194.24$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0495852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No8c184.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9849854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No22c161.76$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6753855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No24c147.89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.281,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No42c146.92$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7180560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No26c136.71$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.811,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No41c135.56$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0933746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No17c135.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.34,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes58c135.38$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No37c131.17$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8435344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No42c126$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.255,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc6…d496backed Yes76c111.24$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.256657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No37c104.3$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7848743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38c7…1c86backed No21c102.05$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1111844.1%52 W · 66 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No14c101.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3840438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4017255.2%95 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4149…8147backed No62c99.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.58444%37 W · 47 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf045…c619backed Yes60c99.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6518035.6%64 W · 116 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes65c96.66$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6230332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No40c94.79$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8890555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No27c92.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.942,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes60c91.66$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6743559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd353…9ac2backed No22c91.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206264.5%40 W · 22 L+8.5wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes64c90$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No16c83.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.022,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes62c81.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.991,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc9e…251fbacked No37c79.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.839960.6%60 W · 39 L+16.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+42.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked No26c79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3424569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes22c71.64$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.842,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes68c71.48$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9443050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes60c65$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2616453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No36c64.14$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.935,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x558b…f41bbacked No39c62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2928660.8%174 W · 112 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd988…6ce5backed Yes54c61$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1911840.7%48 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x271e…8eb9backed No41c60.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254658.7%27 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes58c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.125947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No36c59.65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.457948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No70c52.5$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9267158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No75c50.46$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0753951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1826256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1870148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked No36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1813351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1818254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No37c48.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.964,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No39c48.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.162,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes50c45.45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.543,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No45c44.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0794066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes57c44.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0494552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No39c43.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8367336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes65c43.37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.993,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes72c43.05$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.886,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes62c42.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3154335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes46c42.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6852446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc04…f007backed Yes64c42.02$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.131346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1f2…9bf5backed Yes55c41.47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.643450%17 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.822,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.43,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e3…6863backed Yes59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.44233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa20b…390bbacked No38c39.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.074143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No51c38.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.071,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No48c38.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4687629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No39c37.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.58,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes57c33.31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.327443.2%32 W · 42 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No39c33.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9744567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed No65c30.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2039346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x194b…2a11backed No39c30.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9628866.3%191 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No46c30.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7334853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.14,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.15,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No58c29.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.361,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No40c29.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.674,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No39c29.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.47,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes39c28.94$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7698160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No52c28.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526958.4%157 W · 112 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes68c26.48$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.412,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes46c26.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.981,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c30…b668backed Yes58c25.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7615940.3%64 W · 95 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad43…1427backed Yes80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.114465.9%29 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ece…1949backed No43c23.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.317361.8%107 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No50c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.558358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes58c20.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.861,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe44…5d00backed Yes60c20.16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1610345.6%47 W · 56 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.720144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f90…b302backed Yes66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfba…033dbacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.985149%25 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.633349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.