Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89e5a84fa5520c96adfe55025712423bd55745c555f7e4ecf94c2a9e82d56184
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbad9…2647backed No | 2c | 616.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 60c | 566.92$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 387.81$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3929…afd2backed No | 40c | 378.32$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 21c | 339.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 64c | 316.35$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 278.15$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 28c | 256.44$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.86 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 40c | 256.09$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 238.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 59c | 220.34$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 48c | 194.24$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 8c | 184.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 22c | 161.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 24c | 147.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 42c | 146.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 26c | 136.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 41c | 135.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 17c | 135.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 58c | 135.38$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 37c | 131.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 126$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 76c | 111.24$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 37c | 104.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 21c | 102.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 14c | 101.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 62c | 99.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 60c | 99.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 65c | 96.66$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 40c | 94.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 27c | 92.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 60c | 91.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 22c | 91.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 16c | 83.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 62c | 81.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 37c | 79.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 26c | 79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 71.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 68c | 71.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 36c | 64.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 54c | 61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed No | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 36c | 59.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 70c | 52.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 75c | 50.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 48.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 39c | 48.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 50c | 45.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 45c | 44.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 57c | 44.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 39c | 43.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 65c | 43.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 43.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 62c | 42.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 46c | 42.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc04…f007backed Yes | 64c | 42.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed Yes | 55c | 41.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 38c | 39.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 51c | 38.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 48c | 38.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 39c | 37.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 57c | 33.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 39c | 33.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 65c | 30.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 39c | 30.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 46c | 30.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 58c | 29.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 29.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 39c | 29.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 39c | 28.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 68c | 26.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 46c | 26.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 58c | 25.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 43c | 23.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 58c | 20.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed Yes | 60c | 20.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…b302backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.