Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x744f94dc6805c8d5d2d8d5e2cf111efcd5c7c8661f37af24aa99166a06b113c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 40c | 1,390$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.19 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 39c | 780.77$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.95 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 757.79$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.05 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 705.15$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 548.84$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.24 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 24c | 489.27$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.22 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 447.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 422.99$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 406.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 379.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 351.06$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.02 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 282.28$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.93 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 276$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 272.91$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 21c | 257.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 241.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 233.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 48c | 228.77$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 41c | 216.1$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed No | 69c | 212.6$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 207.54$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 193.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 190$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 189.78$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.91 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 172$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 164.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 68c | 162.2$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 159.92$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 152$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 151.84$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 29c | 146.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 42c | 138.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 115.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 115$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 113.59$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 40c | 112.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 26c | 112.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 39c | 111.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 39c | 105$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 31c | 100.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…1a48backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9155…4511backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 95.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 90.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 37c | 85.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 37c | 81.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 27c | 80.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051a…7c45backed No | 77c | 77.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 77.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 15c | 74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 76c | 73.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 61c | 72.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 68.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 32c | 67.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a6…84dcbacked Yes | 30c | 62.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 35c | 57.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 56c | 53.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 57c | 50.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 50.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 57c | 49.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 62c | 49.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 46.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 44c | 45.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 33c | 45.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 43.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 59c | 42.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 41.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 40.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 37c | 40.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 31c | 39.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e1…f883backed Yes | 39c | 39.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 47c | 38.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 27c | 38.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 45c | 37.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 37.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 36.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 56c | 35.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 58c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…a41ebacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.