Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb24547283be5a4a80b9c80ac52f9320ba318f23a511979330fb7c8f6e29e6829
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 48c | 1,515$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.08 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 33c | 742.4$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.61 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 593.53$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 470$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 369.63$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 297.68$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 287.36$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.27 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 276$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 259.97$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.38 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 224.52$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 213.75$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.13 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 211.67$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 202.32$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 190.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 179.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 170.83$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 55c | 167.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 53c | 161.21$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 21c | 154.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 146.69$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 72c | 139.63$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 136.52$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 135.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 135$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 75c | 133.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 56c | 125.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 69c | 124$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.53 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 38c | 121.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 115.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 107.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 12c | 100.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 67c | 100.05$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…7f22backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 31c | 93.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.77 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 30c | 90.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 85.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 43c | 85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 74c | 81.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 48c | 75.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 50c | 74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 40c | 73.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 72.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 63.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 62.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 38c | 62.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…491abacked No | 21c | 62.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 25c | 59.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 53c | 58.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed No | 68c | 56.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 27c | 56.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 21c | 54.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 54.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c6…3eb7backed Yes | 67c | 51.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed No | 32c | 50.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 48.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 45c | 44.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 34c | 44.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 42.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 42.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 24c | 41.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 35c | 38.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 38.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 40c | 37.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 28c | 36.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 65c | 35.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 48c | 32.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 31.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…a2c1backed Yes | 79c | 30.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 60c | 30.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 29.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 68c | 29.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 62c | 29.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x316e…06c9backed Yes | 38c | 29.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 79c | 28.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf0…5951backed No | 55c | 26.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…cc0cbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.