Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca321c7019c6cfd1481da8c7dd163d133824475ce45e812d2d8760ef6d8882b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 31c | 254.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.63 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 7c | 216.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 31c | 203.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.58 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 174.76$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 165.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.23 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 10c | 160.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.19 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 110.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 95.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 24c | 95.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…1118backed No | 75c | 95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 69c | 89.56$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 21c | 89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 88.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 80.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 78.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 14c | 73.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 72.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 25c | 70.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 68.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 69c | 58.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 47c | 57.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 54.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 49c | 53.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 50c | 46.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 52c | 37.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 32c | 36.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 40c | 33.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 34c | 33.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 31.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 64c | 31.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 47c | 29.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 28.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 68c | 26.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 22.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 63c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 79c | 14.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.