Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3899ea000d664e15620172e7632a0cd7297ceb998800121e7869a7d3609a19f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 1c | 1,587$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 430$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.75 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 276.1$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.28 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 223.53$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 41c | 205.6$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 414 | 43.2%179 W · 235 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 30c | 202.54$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 411 | 37.7%155 W · 256 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 194.53$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.71 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 148.67$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 147.22$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 144.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 112.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 12c | 107.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.65 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 106.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 39c | 102.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 42c | 95.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 34c | 86.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 73c | 81.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 576 | 54.3%313 W · 263 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 42c | 72.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 71.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 1,710 | 60.8%1,039 W · 671 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 47c | 70.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 424 | 47.9%203 W · 221 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 42c | 69.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 54.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 37c | 51.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 56c | 50.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 1,184 | 54.9%650 W · 534 L | +49.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 28c | 48.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 47.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 62c | 44.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 782 | 55.4%433 W · 349 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 43.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 69c | 42.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 42.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 41.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 45c | 39.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 60c | 37.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 298 | 32.2%96 W · 202 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 38c | 37.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 67c | 33.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 33.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 33.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 32.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed Yes | 67c | 29.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 28.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 61c | 28.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 942 | 2.4%23 W · 919 L | -388.2wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 28.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 917 | 73.2%671 W · 246 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 28.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 27.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 46c | 26.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 42c | 25.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 273 | 48.7%133 W · 140 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 25.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…5430backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 42c | 24.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 63c | 23.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 67c | 22.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 222 | 65.3%145 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed Yes | 62c | 19.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 62c | 16.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 62c | 16.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 923 | 55.9%516 W · 407 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 72c | 14.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 218 | 60.1%131 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.