Token Launches · resolved market
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c579046749f8d2d509865dbd9cd653317d84389eb8836221083ba1448595952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 3,529$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…b315backed Yes | 47c | 1,917$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 43c | 1,825$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…09f8backed Yes | 68c | 1,298$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 28c | 1,296$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.84 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 1,200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 23c | 1,173$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.27 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f28…ba03backed Yes | 80c | 1,047$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x902a…c212backed Yes | 52c | 964.87$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…b660backed Yes | 21c | 951.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed Yes | 45c | 864.62$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.49 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe767…d58cbacked Yes | 73c | 801.37$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb977…3158backed No | 49c | 800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d84…3907backed No | 63c | 781$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…3ae9backed Yes | 48c | 579.61$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828d…c9a5backed Yes | 69c | 533.2$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.13 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8035…eb6abacked No | 31c | 326.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 29c | 259.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.27 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 72c | 258.27$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 46c | 221.24$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.83 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x329b…18f8backed Yes | 53c | 185.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 20c | 167.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…2a67backed No | 52c | 162.27$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 136.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca4…abb1backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…745cbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 71c | 98.85$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 20c | 89.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…6294backed No | 18c | 87.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed No | 28c | 85.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…79abbacked Yes | 55c | 78.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 70c | 77.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…575dbacked No | 35c | 74.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…02c4backed Yes | 74c | 67.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22dc…7b11backed No | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…4f27backed Yes | 79c | 63.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 35c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ee…2c77backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 73c | 59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 48 | 91.7%44 W · 4 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 48.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 76c | 42.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4d…3f16backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 30c | 39.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…33b5backed No | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7a…ba3bbacked Yes | 74c | 27.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 72c | 25.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x618f…1accbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 52c | 19.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2027?Yes won
- Will Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2027?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.