Token Launches · resolved market
Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2027?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x167b740c7a0348b56b62d26b9199e216b6b137d19bb95d51d48017b27c0251df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x463f…e458backed No | 13c | 1,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 14c | 701.42$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…2a67backed No | 15c | 413.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 14c | 280$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked No | 13c | 254$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 11c | 131$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 21c | 127$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 19c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 13c | 107.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7e23backed No | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 23c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…0753backed No | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2027?this page
- Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2027?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.