Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79461a00dbcc63b0e1ea8e6955b70c2a80da39ac5033f7c9548e10e77b751d71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 260$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 196.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 189.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 187.76$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 183.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 159.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 138$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 102.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 23c | 79.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 79c | 74.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 72.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 70.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 57c | 66.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 58c | 60.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 26c | 59.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 56.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 51.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 48.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 53c | 48.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 46.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 29c | 45.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 29c | 45.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 43.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 40.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 39.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 39.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 28c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 58c | 34.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 34.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 57c | 32.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 42c | 30.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 30.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 58c | 29.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 71c | 28.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…3b3bbacked No | 54c | 26.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 78c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 73c | 23.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 53c | 21.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 52c | 19.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 18.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 16.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 69c | 15.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.