Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb027be285769edcf3bfc0a1f246185189cd93fd05ac9faa19c9a8e58ec3ee315
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 58c | 259.41$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 232.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 218.4$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 184.66$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.72 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 41c | 180$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 55c | 175.51$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f10…9d99backed Yes | 41c | 149.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 138$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 129.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 128.1$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 114.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 106.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 57c | 97.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 73c | 74.45$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 61c | 64.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 49.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 48.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 58c | 48.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 45.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 47c | 45.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 40.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 53c | 40.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 40.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…1706backed Yes | 45c | 37.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 62c | 35.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 38c | 35.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 65c | 34.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 36c | 33.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a34…51fabacked No | 54c | 33.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 33.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 36c | 33.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 47c | 32.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 35c | 31.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 30.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 60c | 29.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 28.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 66c | 24.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 21.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…a6e4backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 54c | 19.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 18.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 68c | 17.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 58c | 17.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 15.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…b067backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.