Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe66b62a5faabc13defbbb8ff1042cd6063c5af5c0eddf7124071d44f93b7829b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,222$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.75 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 1,868$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.27 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 1,845$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 1,033$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 929.02$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 543.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 33c | 274.71$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.06 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 31c | 270.2$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.76 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 264.6$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 33c | 228.7$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 159.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 157$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.95 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 39c | 132.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.79 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 122.71$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 121.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 112.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 35c | 112.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 106.83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes | 35c | 105$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 65c | 99.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 33c | 88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 65.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 42c | 58.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 74c | 53.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 50.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 64c | 49.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 35c | 48.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 46c | 46.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 42.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…d08cbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…e8b7backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…0d81backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 38.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 54c | 37.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 52c | 37.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e4…4753backed No | 68c | 36.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 65c | 34.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 31.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…1dd1backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 65c | 26.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 68c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 62c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.