Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e0451dd7a79a79eee386996a4bf0feae2edb3994544968ced6c3c2a3f5ad8af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 71c | 274.72$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 28c | 250.67$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 29c | 240.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 202.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 30c | 200.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 154.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 113$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 93.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 27c | 92.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 80.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 73.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 33c | 69.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 68.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 68c | 50.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c2…5c65backed No | 69c | 50.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 72c | 47.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 43.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 41.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 66c | 37.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 73c | 35.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 72c | 34.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…9862backed Yes | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 31.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 26.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 20.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 72c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.