Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe498f4659ab60ed59456404c0d1febbf1024c5ef9af419fb2c752aa650252265
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 1,499$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.96 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 457.93$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.35 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 343.8$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.09 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 50c | 338.41$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 32c | 325.7$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 311.57$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 61c | 245.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.76 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 228.02$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 47c | 178.13$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 26c | 175.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 154.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 149.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 136.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked No | 56c | 130$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 51c | 118.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 112.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 53c | 93.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 49c | 86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 47c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 60.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 39c | 59.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 55c | 52.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 59c | 50.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 48.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 38c | 44.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 41.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…e8b7backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…0d81backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 38c | 38.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb176…5500backed Yes | 51c | 38.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 34c | 34.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…b9a7backed Yes | 61c | 32.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 76c | 32.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 51c | 26.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 45c | 26.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…451abacked Yes | 61c | 25.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 51c | 24.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 60c | 24.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4323…f818backed Yes | 62c | 24.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 24.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 58c | 22.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…7c35backed No | 55c | 19.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 65c | 17.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 62c | 16.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 63c | 16.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 28°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.