Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9471d530248cfe0fb37df4fa37e90ecd7b6653b61ebb9dafe343dc2cbe9f9ab3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 72c | 761.38$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.29 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 37c | 507.57$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.6 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 15c | 441.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 30c | 395.42$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.35 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 80c | 320.06$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 288.43$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 272.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 272.2$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed No | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 143.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 125$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 114.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 28c | 109.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 105$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…2647backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 89.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 26c | 86.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 22c | 84.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 15c | 79.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed Yes | 78c | 69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 25c | 63.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 23c | 61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 56.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 21c | 55.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b49…9bdcbacked No | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 45c | 39.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 74c | 32.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed Yes | 71c | 30.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6254…1e8cbacked Yes | 80c | 26.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 21.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 72c | 21.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 74c | 18.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 28?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.