TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,957
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,541

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,957 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7bc1…8db4backed No1c3,715$30 inLost-$29.72911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-77.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa65c…7997backed Yes77c2,509$1,937 inWon+$571.585100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x272c…7f07backed No1c2,292$14 inLost-$13.755735.1%20 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed No22c2,229$500 inLost-$500.41825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-66.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6869…43d4backed No1c1,837$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No6c1,200$70 inLost-$69.894157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No5c760$37 inLost-$37.1419432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x279c…2b82backed Yes22c567.07$123 inWon+$444.222814.3%4 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No6c300$18 inLost-$1819818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No6c275.15$17 inLost-$16.665655.4%31 W · 25 L+7.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+7.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb17d…59aebacked No32c249.97$81 inLost-$80.994242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac38…efffbacked No19c200$37 inLost-$37.2860%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed No20c130$26 inLost-$263013.3%4 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-68.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No54c114.72$62 inLost-$61.9389317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xf08c…91e9backed No72c96.91$70 inLost-$69.584839.6%19 W · 29 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes77c75.18$58 inWon+$17.593056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No26c67$17 inLost-$17.4217824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbada…d874backed Yes46c33.66$15 inWon+$18.293974.4%29 W · 10 L+9.8wins+0.25per pick49cpaid+62.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x9cf7…1f7abacked No79c25.32$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.6wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x975b…149bbacked No75c19.9$15 inLost-$15650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No77c17.93$14 inLost-$13.814281%115 W · 27 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick74cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.