AI · resolved market
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafc8c8811054ad1821c88c0c3cc81dcbaa964899695f4518bee57a55b670e223
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12df…6a3dbacked No | 2c | 6,902$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed No | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed No | 1c | 4,710$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…973ebacked No | 1c | 4,585$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 2c | 4,444$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…d04cbacked No | 1c | 3,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ad…4be9backed No | 1c | 2,847$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.94 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…970ebacked No | 1c | 2,007$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 29c | 1,987$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +216%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 73c | 1,600$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 13c | 1,300$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 987.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 416 | 7.5%31 W · 385 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 21c | 951.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked No | 4c | 429.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 30c | 300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 32c | 300$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.37 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed No | 58c | 294.41$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.83 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 79c | 268.97$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 71c | 249.95$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 21c | 239.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 13c | 226.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 178.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x577a…6c80backed No | 34c | 149.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 19c | 118.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.73 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed Yes | 17c | 116.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.84 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed2…9d82backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 18c | 69.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +9.8wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 45c | 57.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 79c | 47.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 79c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 58c | 35.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdad…3ef7backed Yes | 79c | 20.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?this page
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.